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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."